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Table 3 Mortality rate and the number of deaths due to breast cancer (1996 and 2011)

From: Cost of illness of breast cancer in Japan: trends and future projections

Model

Item

2011

2014

2017

2020

 

Estimated population (thousand person)

127,799

126,949

125,739

124,223

[% of 65 years or older]

23.1 %

26.1 %

28.0 %

29.1 %

Fixed model

Number of breast cancer deaths (person)

12,791

13,308

13,641

13,901

[% of 65 years or older]

52.1 %

56.2 %

58.7 %

59.4 %

Average age of death (years)

66.1

66.8

67.4

67.9

Direct cost (billion yen)

166.3

168.3

170.0

170.1

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

46.8

48.6

48.7

48.4

Mortality cost (billion yen)

484.0

487.8

487.2

484.8

[% of 65 years or older]

23.1 %

25.6 %

27.0 %

26.7 %

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

38.0

36.7

35.7

34.9

COI (billion yen)

697.0

704.7

705.9

703.4

Linear model

Number of breast cancer deaths (person)

12,791

13,968

15,015

16,039

[% of 65 years or older]

52.1 %

56.0 %

59.4 %

60.8 %

Average age of death (years)

66.1

66.9

67.9

68.7

Direct cost (billion yen)

166.3

157.4

158.3

160.6

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

46.8

47.3

49.3

46.5

Mortality cost (billion yen)

484.0

509.5

523.5

536.4

[% of 65 years or older]

23.1 %

25.5 %

27.7 %

28.2 %

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

38.0

36.5

34.9

33.4

COI (billion yen)

697.0

714.1

731.1

743.6

Logarithm model

Number of breast cancer deaths (person)

12,791

13,153

13,720

14,222

[% of 65 years or older]

52.1 %

54.6 %

57.4 %

58.5 %

Average age of death (years)

66.1

66.4

67.1

67.8

Direct cost (billion yen)

166.3

158.8

154.7

153.0

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

46.8

45.8

44.3

44.0

Mortality cost (billion yen)

484.0

494.6

499.5

502.4

[% of 65 years or older]

23.1 %

24.2 %

25.7 %

25.7 %

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

38.0

37.6

36.4

35.3

COI (billion yen)

697.0

699.2

698.5

699.4

Mixed model

Number of breast cancer deaths (person)

12,791

13,555

14,323

14,986

[% of 65 years or older]

52.1 %

54.2 %

56.8 %

57.4 %

Average age of death (years)

66.1

66.3

67.0

67.5

Direct cost (billion yen)

166.3

157.1

159.6

162.2

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

46.8

45.5

46.5

47.3

Mortality cost (billion yen)

484.0

510.9

524.0

534.3

[% of 65 years or older]

23.1 %

24.4 %

26.1 %

25.9 %

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

38.0

37.7

36.6

35.7

COI (billion yen)

697.0

713.5

730.0

743.8

  1. Source of estimated population: 2008; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Population Estimates” 2014 2020; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research “Population Statistics of Japan”